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Episode 891: The Support Saberseminar Edition
Date May 25, 2016 Summary Ben, Sam, and listener Corey McMahon plug the Saberseminar, then answer listener emails about automated strike zones, Jackie Bradley, Mike Trout, Bill Wambsganss, Willians Astudillo and more. Topics * Catcher utility with automated strike zones * Swing power and home run length * Jackie Bradley Jr.'s lineup position * Reaching on error * Consecutive home runs to start a game * Hitless Mike Trout hypothetical * Bill Wambsganss' triple play * Willians Astudillo's low strikeout and walk rates Intro Jethro Tull, "With You There to Help Me" Outro Tegan and Sara, "The Cure" Banter * Saberseminar is coming up, Ben and Sam will be attending after missing last year's event due to being in Sonoma. * Corey is appearing on the podcast having donated to charity as part of Saberseminar. Previous Saberseminar donors appeared in Episodes 637 and 376. * Episode 890 follow-up: Sam got several details wrong when discussing contract amounts. Email Questions * Dan: "Depending on whom you ask, catcher is debatably either the most or one of the most important defensive positions in baseball. Suppose baseball goes to an automated strike zone which eliminates framing. How unimportant does catcher become as a defensive position? Where on the spectrum does it fall if an umpire no longer has to slot behind the catcher in order to see the pitch. Does catching technique change dramatically? Would catching equipment change dramatically?" * Evan: "Whenever I see players hit monster home runs I think 'what a waste of a scarce resource'. A 470 foot home run is just as valuable as a 320 foot one. And if they're swinging that hard, far harder than is necessary, you have to think they're sacrificing contact on all the other pitches they swing at. Do you think there is truth to this or is there enough added benefit to powerful swings even when a player doesn't quite barrel up. P.S., this is kind of similar to Sam's advice on getting to the airport. If you don't hit many 'just enough' home runs you're swinging too hard." * Jeremy: "Jackie Bradley is currently showing a .160 OPS+ from the bottom of the Red Sox order and he is swinging a hot, hot bat. Is there a rule for when John Farrell should move him up? Is it immediately or when stats stabilize or not at all?" * Dan: "Jackie Bradley Jr. is on an impressive 25 game hitting streak. With numbers like that how come Jackie Bradley is consistently hitting 7th in the lineup?" * Tom: "If a starting pitcher gave up a home run on the first of the game and then the second, and then the third, etc., how many consecutive home runs would he have to give up to get yanked? How would this vary if he were Jose Fernandez or Velasquez or David Price? It would be tough to pull them all that quick because his pitch count would still be low and the bases would still be empty." * Mike: "Suppose that Mike Trout goes 0-4 tonight. He goes 0-4 again tomorrow and the next night and the next night and so on. So long as Mike Trout is in the MLB lineup he will not get a hit. How long would it take for the Angels to bench him? How long would it be before the Angels cut him altogether? How long would it take for Mike Trout to give up and retire? Assuming he refuses to retire, how long would teams give him a chance to return to his old self?" * Jack: "So I am watching Antiques Roadshow tonight and a descendant of Bill Wambsganss has a piece passed down from him. He apparently had an unassisted triple play in the 1920 World Series which sounds pretty cool. But the woman who brought in the piece said, with some lament, he used to always say he had a 13 year career but he could have been born the day before the triple play and died the day after for all he cared. This piqued my curiosity to I looked up his 13 year career which was completely unremarkable. 2.1 total WAR, below average hitter, etc. So, is this guy, now deceased, being a dick or is that me for thinking that if not for the triple play it wouldn't have mattered if he was born at all for all anyone cared?" * Joe: "As a Braves fan I cope by reading minor league box scores and keeping tabs on the organization's prospect wealth. There's a lot of publication and noise around the big boys but while digging into the minor league rosters I was taken aback by Willians Astudillo, a 24 year old catcher who players for the Mississippi Braves. The guy has 1,667 at bats in the minor leagues and only 68 walks and 53 strikeouts. That translates to a 3.7% walk rate and a 2.9% strikeout rate over the duration of his minor league career. I'm wondering if you were in need of a catcher would this data put him on your radar or would you steer away because of the low walk rate?" Play Index * Sam uses the Play Index to look up the players who reached base on error the most times. * Adam Dunn is the worst all-time for reaching on error. He averaged reaching on error once in every 250 plate appearances. * Mickey Stanley is the all-time leader for reaching on error. He reached on error 118 times in his career. Notes * There were 61 catchers on opening day rosters this season. With automated strike zones Ben estimates that 8 would not have had a roster spot. Corey thinks it is closer to 15-20. * Errors have significantly decreased in recent years. * Ben and Sam think that managers would allow 4 or 5 consecutive home runs to begin a game before pulling their starter. Corey thinks it could go as high as 6. * Sam, on Bill Wambsganss' quote, "This is like the deepest, darkest, quote I've ever heard from a player." * Carson Cistulli said that Astudillo resembles, "an overripe pear". Links * Effectively Wild Episode 891: The Support Saberseminar Edition * Willians Astudillo mascot gif Category:Episodes Category:Guest Episodes Category:Email Episodes